Forecast peak volume
Start with last year's peak volume per day, adjusted for current revenue growth. If you grew 50% YoY, expect 50% larger peaks. Add 15-20% buffer for promotional uplifts.
Most brands underestimate peaks because they extrapolate from baseline rather than the actual peak-day pattern.
Lock 3PL surge pricing
Most 3PLs charge peak surcharges (October-January). Get the surcharge structure in writing by August. Negotiate against forecast volume; vague "TBD" surcharges are the most common peak-season cost surprise.
Carrier capacity
UPS, FedEx, and USPS announce peak-season capacity allocations in September. Brands without committed capacity find themselves throttled or paying surge rates. If you ship over 500 orders a day, get a committed allocation; below that, plan multi-carrier as your hedge.
Inventory pre-positioning
Inventory should arrive at the 3PL or warehouse two to three weeks before peak demand. Buying decisions usually need to be made by August or September for late-November sell-through. Trade off stockouts vs. carry cost based on your margin profile.
Staffing
In-house warehouses need 30-60% more headcount during peak. Hire and train by mid-October; first-day-on-the-job workers during Cyber Week are a disaster. 3PLs handle this for you but charge for it; the surcharge is usually justified by the staffing risk you avoid.
Talk to a specialist
If you are facing this decision now, a free scoping conversation with a vetted Shop Operations Experts specialist usually saves weeks of back-and-forth. Tell us the situation and we will route you to someone who has shipped the work for a comparable brand.
No sales pitch, no lead-volume games — just a scoped recommendation within one business day.